August 27, 2026: Civilians throughout Russia are suddenly realizing that the war in Ukraine is not going well. That’s because Russia has suffered nearly 1.5 million casualties so far, including half a million dead. There are so many casualties that these soldiers are now being sent to hospitals all over the country. This is embarrassing because the government insists Russia is winning the war. In reality, Russia is suffering eight casualties for every Ukrainian one. Worse, the Ukrainians are increasing their use of ground combat drones armed with machine guns. There have been a growing number of incidents where Russian troops surrender to these drones. The drone operator then has his drones escort the prisoners back to where soldiers can take over.

The problems with Russian casualties sent to distant hospitals, some several thousand kilometers from Ukraine, are that some of these medical facilities are overwhelmed and local patients are not admitted unless they are critical, and elective procedures are delayed until the emergency situations die down. Meanwhile, there is a nationwide shortage of blood and medical supplies, as well as Feldsher, the traditional untrained medics the army has used for centuries. Many of the casualties are Feldsher, and a priority is given to healing lightly wounded medics so they can go back to work in Ukraine or in hospitals all over Russia full of wounded soldiers.

To complicate matters for the families of the wounded, Russia has not published casualty figures since mid-2022, to conceal from the public how badly Russian forces were doing in Ukraine. Russians can still get the casualty data via the internet, even though Putin has tried to restrict access. This has made it difficult because most of the Russian economy and government depend on internet access.

There are clear signs that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. Of the two million casualties suffered by both sides so far, 70 percent of them were Russian. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties has changed over the last three years from 2-1 to the current 8-1. The Ukrainians have long made the most of being on the defensive. Ukraine has developed specific tactics for this, and Ukrainian soldiers are trained to be very effective at causing lots of Russian casualties. Until this year, Russia could mobilize enough new troops to replace losses. That is no longer the case, and in the last few months Russia has been able to replace only about 90 percent of its losses. This is getting worse. The deteriorating Russian situation also shows up in advance rates, which were 50, 70, and 90 meters per day during three recent battles. These are among the slowest advance rates in any conflict since the start of World War II.

The primary source of Russian losses has been Ukrainian drones. These drones come in an increasing number of types, and new models appear rapidly. Russia has been unable to compete. To make matters worse, Ukraine has developed an effective drone interceptor, further diluting Russian offensive efforts. Over the last year, Ukrainian long-range drones have intensified their attacks on military and economic targets in western Russia, including major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg. These attacks are bringing the war home to Russian civilians who have been told for years that Russian forces were winning.